[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 17/1500 UTC IS NEAR 31.0N
65.6W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 87 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTH
EAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 947 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 110
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 135 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR
HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE
GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT3. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-234N BETWEEN 62W-68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N33W TO 4N36W
MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 32W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N47W
MOVING NNE AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 17N47W TO 13N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N14W AND EXTENDS
TO 8N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N30W TO 9N34W. THE ITCZ RESUMES
W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N37W AND CONTINUES TO 8N41W TO 11N43W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 18W-
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
20N92W TO S MEXICO AT 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W
PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE N OF 23N AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF
23N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE. ALSO
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT
22N77W TO N YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5 -15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF 12N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N70W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY. ALSO EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
E HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE
OVER THE ISLAND SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF HURRICANE
GONZALO FROM 31N71W TO 28N71W TO 26N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT
22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF
26N. HURRICANE GONZALO IS SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE. SEE ABOVE.
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N47W. SEE
ABOVE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
31N17W TO 25N30W TO 26N40W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 22N29W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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