[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 17/1200 UTC IS NEAR 29.9N
66.5W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 169 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES 13 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR
HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE
GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO 18 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 11N24W...7N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N30W TO 6N33W AND 5N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN 10W
AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO
28N71W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A.
GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N71W...TO 26N70W 22N79W 24N90W 22N97W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 21N90W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N90W TO 20N92W AND 18N92W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD TO THE COAST OF
CUBA BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...KMZG...
KBBF...KGVX...KXIH...KGRY...KIPN...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

PATTERSON LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR
LESS AND FOG DURING ITS LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. THE VISIBILITY IS
ONE MILE OR LESS AND FOG ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE VISIBILITY IN
PENSACOLA FLORIDA HAS REACHED 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...AND 2
MILES OR LESS AND FOG IN PERRY FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS FROM 80W EASTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND IT
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING AND WEAKENING OFF AND ON DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY...FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND
ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD.
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.26 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA AND BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF COSTA RICA...NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN
77W AND 80W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA BETWEEN 81W AND 83W ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
PANAMA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL HISPANIOLA-TO-GULF OF
URABA TROUGH ALSO PASSES RIGHT THROUGH THIS AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...AND IT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND WEAKENING OFF AND ON DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY...FROM 17N TO
20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED AT
BARAHONA AT 17/0000 UTC. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE
ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IS ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE. THE TROUGH
EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING ALONG A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST LINE...
STILL PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE WHOLE 48-HOUR TIME
PERIOD IN SOME WAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
PUERTO RICO WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 160 NM OF THE 24N50W CYCLONIC
CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BEYOND THE 120 NM TO 160 NM
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N46W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 13N51W AND 14N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 39W AND 44W...AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO
30N BETWEEN 27W AND 55W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 49N23W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N30W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
10W AND 50W. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA STILL. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 29N20W AND
27N24W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N24W TO 26N35W
26N47W AND 23N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N12W 26N20W 24N28W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N25W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO THE 32N16W
27N24W 26N40W 23N52W COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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