[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 34.0N 62.8W AT 12/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 145 NM NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN TONIGHT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN 61W-66W.
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 1009 MB LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GONZALO AT
12/1730 UTC. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 58.4W
AT 12/1730 UTC OR ABOUT 175 NM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 200 NM E-SE
OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-59W. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N56W
ACROSS THE ISLANDS NEAR 25N61W TO 16N63W. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY
GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AFFECTING THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N40W
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N41W TO 9N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT COVER THE
AREA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
EXTENDS ALONG 7N26W 9N31W 9N38W TO 12N40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES SE TO
OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO JUST S OF CORPUS
CHRISTI WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 93W FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO TO 24N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 90W-94W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S EXTENDING FROM W OF THE
THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N84W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N-26N E OF 86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST E OF THE FRONT WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING IN THE NW
GULF TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST MON QUICKLY REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA
BORDER TO LA PUNTA DE CABO ROJO MEXICO EARLY TUE MORNING

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE W TIP OF CUBA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 66W...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CLIPPING THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN...AND A NARROW UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N78W TO OVER COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 73W-78W INCLUDING
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF LINE FROM THE NE TIP OF NICARAGUA TO THE
PANAMA CANAL. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. T.S. GONZALO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MON THEN NW NEAR
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE MON NIGHT AND TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE ISLAND... AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENDS OVER THE
ISLAND NEAR 18N70W...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. T.S. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MON THEN NW NEAR PUERTO RICO
AND THE MONA PASSAGE MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL INCREASE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 1009 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES AS TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM BERMUDA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO BEYOND
32N76W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
31N76W EXTENDING AN AXIS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W
OF 66W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT
AND SUBSEQUENT CLEAR SKIES COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 24N68W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 28N11W JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 27N21W
TO 28N28W GIVING THE CANARY ISLANDS ISLANDS SHOWERS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-55W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. T.S. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MON THEN NW NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA
PASSAGE MON NIGHT AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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