[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121148 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

...UPDATE TO FAY...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 33.4N 63.9W AT 12/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 74 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA...MOVING N-NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. THE CENTER OF FAY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 63W-68W. SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG 57W OR
ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 10 KT. HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXCEPT N OF 17N
WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME DUST ARE DEPICTED IN GOES-R IMAGERY. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
17N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 54W-61W. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAINS AS HIGH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING LATER
TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N38W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 6N39W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT THIS WAVE THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...EXCEPT FOR
THE NW ENVIRONMENT WHERE DRY AIR AND DUST ARE PRESENT. THE WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
7N-18N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W TO 10N37W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 7N41W TO 2N49W. SEE WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDS
NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N86W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR DOMINATE ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN...THUS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.
THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT N OF 21N. ELSEWHERE
NE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE. ASCAT DATA DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 24N85W TO 14N87W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALONG MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ON THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. BANKING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG SE MEXICAN COAST
ENHANCES HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COAST S OF
23N. A COLD FRONT STARTS TO ENTER THE NW BASIN ALONG 29N92W TO
27N97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE SW BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF A LINE
FROM 16N82W SE TO 12N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 86W SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW CUBA AS
WELL IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SE GULF. ANOTHER SURFACE THROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
ENHANCES SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NE
ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ABOUT
320 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW EVENING. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE NE HISPANIOLA
BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PERSISTS AS WELL AS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FAY...WHICH
CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING IS
WEST AND EAST OF FAY IN THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 20N.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG
30N11W TO 27N20W TO 27N27W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR/PAW


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