[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR
21N60W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SAME AREA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 57W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W FROM 05N TO 16N...EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 10N26W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N53W TO 07N54W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO THE NORTH PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. THIS CONVECTION WAS MERGING INTO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NW...REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 44W AND
50W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF MID- TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
22N63. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS CONFINED TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG 97W. THE WAVE HAS
OVERTAKEN THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM 23N49W TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
E OF THE WAVE AXIS PRIMARILY OVER THE EAST PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE 25W/26W TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N  TO 08N38W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N38W TO 10N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDED WELL N OF THE AXIS IN AN AREA FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 35W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHEARED MID- TO UPPER LEVEL EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N70W ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 25N85W TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO. STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COVERED MOST OF THE CENTRAL
GULF.

SKIES WERE GENERALLY FAIR OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE GULF W OF 92W EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. WEAK 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SW GEORGIA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
22N63W. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERED
THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 70W AMIDST VERY STRONG MID- TO UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS
CENTERED NEAR 13N80W GOVERNED THE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF
70W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W... TOWARD THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N60W AND
14N61W. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURFACE LOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W
IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA AND THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MID- TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SPAN THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N63W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
22N63W AND IS CONNECTED TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
14N56W. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERED
THE SE N ATLANTIC BETWEEN 63W AND 68W AND THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF
60W.

NARROW MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 28N35W TO AND 24N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 32N21W 28N31W
26N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W
AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W
AND 48W.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N40W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 52W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD TO
NEAR BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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