[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR
21N60W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SAME AREA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10
KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 57W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W...PASSING
THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N...TO 5N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 27W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W 14N51W 6N51W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 51W AND
53W...AND FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 21N61W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N49W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG
THE 23W/24W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 7N29W AND 8N34W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N34W TO 9N40W AND 8N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND
32W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 12W AND 18W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO
10N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE AREA FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE TROUGH
IS NEAR 26N84W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ALONG THE TROUGH IS NEAR 22N93W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 420 NM TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE SAME DISTANCES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N60W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N57W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N60W AND 14N61W.
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ABOUT THIS SURFACE LOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N79W...TO A SECOND 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W...ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 23N94W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGBK...KGHB...
AND AT KIPN.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT PORT ISABEL IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...IN VICTORIA TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER TOMBALL...
CONROE...AND HUNTSVILLE IN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES OF
1 MILE TO 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND IN BROOKSVILLE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W...
TOWARD THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W
IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA AND THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA...
WITH A 21N61W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
WIND FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL STAY IN PLACE ALSO.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS NEAR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL
BREAK DOWN...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 27N24W 23N44W AND 22N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N21W 28N31W 26N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N40W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N79W...TO A SECOND 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W...ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR
22N99W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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