[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N28W 16N27W 11N25W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE GOES-R SEVIRI IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME
DUST MOVING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS IN A STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REGION WHICH IS INFLUENCING THE
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AT THE TIME.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF HAITI...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
19N74W OFF THE COAST OF HAITI.

A CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N86W IN
NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HONDURAS...THROUGH SOUTHERN HONDURAS...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 8N89W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...AND WEAKENING... IN WESTERN HONDURAS...IN EL
SALVADOR...AND IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 8N24W 10N34W AND 10N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N36W TO 10N46W AND 9N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N47W
12N49W 10N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W
AND 49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
27N79W JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 26N81W IN
SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 24N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...24N95W AND
23N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N97W TO THE MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 20N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N72W 28N76W 25N83W...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N
TO 24N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 20N
TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N72W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...26N77W...TO 25N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
24N91W 22N98W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...AND
EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
CLOUDINESS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KOPM.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...IN FLORIDA AT THE
ST.PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER AIRPORT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 18N61W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD HISPANIOLA...TO A SECOND
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 19N76W IN THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND
JAMAICA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 19N74W OFF THE COAST OF HAITI...AND FROM 17N TO 18N
BETWEEN 77W AND 78W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA.
ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG...AND WEAKENING...
IN WESTERN HONDURAS...IN EL SALVADOR...AND IN EASTERN SECTIONS
OF GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
57W AND 61W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...2.22 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...
THROUGH PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA. .
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
FROM 75W WESTWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. HAITI CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
THE TROUGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN WITH TIME. A RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS
THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 31N53W. A SECOND TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 27N64W AND 24N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W...AND IT CURVES TO 27N57W 28N65W...TO A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N67W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N67W TO 24N70W AND 23N75W IN THE
BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N42W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N39W 26N41W 21N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W...AND FROM 24N TO 29N
BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 32N
BETWEEN 32W AND 48W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N31W AND 18N37W. A
1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N63W...BETWEEN THE 30N39W
21N43W SURFACE TROUGH AND 28N67W 23N75W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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