[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N25W TO 9N21W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS WHILE THE GOES-R
SEVIRI IMAGERY SHOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND SOME DUST MOVING ACROSS THE CORE OF
THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS IN A STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
REGION WHICH IS INFLUENCING TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AT THE
TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N73W TO 10N73W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. A COMBINATION OF DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ARE INHIBITING
CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N84W TO 9N86W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. PATCHES
OF MODERATE MOISTURE IN SOME SECTORS OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 11N15W TO 9N28W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 9N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N42W TO 8N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N E OF 18W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
BASE EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ALONG 30N76W SW ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 26N82W
23N90W TO 23N97W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 19N97W.
RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN GENERATES A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN
GULF WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OBSERVED EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES N OF THE FRONT.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KT IS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE
5-10 KT WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN
IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL UNTIL DISSIPATION MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES FORMERLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN
HAS MOVED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...HOWEVER IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE HONDURAS COASTLINE.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER JAMAICA ALONG PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-82W...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND CUBA. SIMILARLY...A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW IN THE SW BASIN
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE FOR DETAILS. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER N-NE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING HAZY CONDITIONS. THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE S
AMERICA COAST BETWEEN 64W-73W. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE FORECAST FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE DRY AIR...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR
MASS...MOVES OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC WATERS.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N76W SW ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA CONTINUING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 22N W OF
74W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER
EAST...A SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-60W SUPPORT A
SECOND COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 30N51W TO 27N56W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 27N62W TO A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC REFLECTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 32W-
39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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