[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
15N53W TO 05N54W. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED AFTER ANALYZING THE
LIFE OF THE WAVE AS VIEWED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SAL IS NORTH OF THE WAVE AND
SOME IS PUSHING S TO PREVAIL IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN
50W-58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS
FROM 19N66W TO 11N66W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DUST AND SAL IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE MAINLY W OF
THE WAVE AXIS LIMITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N22W TO 06N30W. THE ITCZ
STARTS FROM 06N30W TO 05N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS QUIET. THE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING W FROM WESTERN CUBA AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF 23N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY
FRI MORNING AND REACH FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE UPPER
MEXICAN COAST BY SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AFFECTING THEIR COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR
13N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS LOW MAINLY S OF 12N ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
PREVAILS N OF PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION
ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
W ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...HISPANIOLA...

QUIET WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THIS FEATURE HAS NO CONVECTION RELATED TO AS A SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIRMASS (SAL) IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF IT.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR
25N69W. TO THE N OF THIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONNECT TO A COLD FRONT RELATED TO A 1008
MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 34N58W. ALONG THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS MAINLY S OF THE
FRONTS FROM 31N55W TO 26N77W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 33N50W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW IS BEING GENERATED BETWEEN
THESE HIGHS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 45W-53W. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED S OF THIS
CONVECTION NEAR 25N48W. CALM WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE WESTERN
ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY EARLY FRI BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE BASIN
FROM THE W BY SAT MOVING ACROSS E THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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