[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH  MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 10N TO 20N.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
67W EASTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W...CURVING TO
8N20W 7N30W AND 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 8N45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
8N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 28N FROM 80W...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 88W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND 92W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THIS AREA
MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO RETURN SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS HAPPENING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
24N88W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 25N SOUTHWARD
FROM 90W WESTWARD. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N95W TO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM
02/0815 UTC THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO
NORTHWESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AT THE PLATFORM SITES.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...IN TEXAS...IN WESLACO AND
MCALLEN...IN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...
FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...RAIN AND CLOUDS IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN/
COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN WITH LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE
LAKE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. RAIN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. LIGHT RAIN IS IN MARY
ESTHER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN AROUND AREAS OF
FORT MYERS AND IN MARATHON KEY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 21N56W...ACROSS GUADELOUPE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 14N69W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
13N77W...ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALSO FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD FROM 75W EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.03 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.79 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.60 IN
TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL PANAMA ALONG 79W...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA
NEAR 12N85W...TO 7N81W AND 4N79W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE AREA OF 21N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN WITH TIME. A RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND 24
HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO
29N60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W TO 27N66W AND 26N73W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 26N73W TO 28N79W AND BEYOND FLORIDA ALONG 28N...
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W 28N60W 28N62W
25N68W 24N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM
73W WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.03 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.79 IN BERMUDA.

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
A TROUGH IS NEAR 32N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...AND FROM 26N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N27W. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 30N27W CYCLONIC
CENTER TO 24N33W AND 18N37W. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 29N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 31N30W TO 29N27W AND
24N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND
40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 32N
BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N40W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N46W...24N60W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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