[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N14W TO 6N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N38W TO 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-
11N BETWEEN 13W-24W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 34W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N73W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN AND ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO THE SE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH E TEXAS AND THEN STALL ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AND A SHEAR LINE THAT IS
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N73W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
15N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND A HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI FROM 20N71W TO 18N74W
ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HAITI AND
THE N PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
34N73W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER N OF 24N W OF 58W. TO THE E...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 34N47W. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 22N64W
ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN 175 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF IT. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS FROM 22N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 175 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 22N58W TO 19N66W
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 54W-63W. THE E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED AT ABOUT 180 NM
SW OF THE AZORES. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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