[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N36W TO 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-
11N BETWEEN 14W-24W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 34W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N75W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN AND ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO THE SE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH E TEXAS AND THEN STALL ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE PREVAILING
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HAITI. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER HAITI AND THE N PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
33N75W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER N OF 24N W OF 61W. TO THE E...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB LOW ENTERED
NEAR 36N45W. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 23N65W
ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF IT. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N65W INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 23N57W TO 19N66W
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 61W-66W. THE E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED AT ABOUT 180 NM
SW OF THE AZORES. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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