[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291710
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER EASTERN
EUROPE IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT N OF 30N BETWEEN 12W
AND 20W. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO
FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
7N40W TO 8N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 12W AND 22W...AND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 39W AND 57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND
39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
NEAR 31N82W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN.
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE WINDS ARE
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 20 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MEXICO...COVERING THE
WESTERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA...AND W ATLANTIC
EXTENDS OVER THE EXTREME N CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W AND
ACROSS JAMAICA TO 17N80W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. NE SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE FRONT...BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KT PREVAIL...EXCEPT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHERE NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N55W TO 25N63W TO 21N72W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT UP TO 400 NM. TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH...A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 33N48W IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 30N BETWEEN 45W AND
49W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N34W IS
PRODUCING FAIR CONDITIONS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN 20W AND 44W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEEP STORM SYSTEM OVER W EUROPE IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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