[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N14W TO 8N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
6N37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 17W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 35N79W
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF
STATES WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINLY N OF 24N. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 20N73W TO 15N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TRADE WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS NOTICED
BEHIND THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE FRONTS AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT E ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 20N73W TO 26N2W...AND
FROM THAT POINT ON IT IS A COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS TO 46N45W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 55W-65W. TO
THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 38W-43W. A
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N37W SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER N OF 28N. A 988 MB SURFACE LOW IS AT ABOUT 150 NM W OF
THE NW AFRICA COAST NEAR 35N10W. THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION N OF 30N AND PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO
EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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