[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR W ATLC AT 26/1200 UTC THROUGH 18
UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO A 1013
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N81W AND ACROSS S FL. STRONG S TO SW WINDS
UP TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
29N WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N30W TO 7N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO
10N BETWEEN 21W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GULF
ALONG 90W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO W CUBA NEAR
23N84W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN IS CLOUD FREE WITH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING COLD ADVECTION OVER
ALL QUADRANTS OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW BASIN. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. THE NW BASIN NEARER TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN.  A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NE BASIN THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BASIN ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FL AND SE
GULF...CROSSING OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO 17N87W AND THEN THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 16N89W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. THIS CONVECTION IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH
WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 70 NM OF 15N68W. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NW AT
10 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY
AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM THE NW
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GULF SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N79W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N81W AND
ACROSS S FL. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF PORTIONS OF THIS
FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 22N48W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 22N44W
TO 17N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 26N
BETWEEN 41W AND 54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 M OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REST OF THE BASIN FROM 15N TO 31N
IS DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER WITH A LARGE
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N42W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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