[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28.5N82W TO 18N90W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 15 FEET...WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
21N TO THE WEST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N80W TO 29.5N81W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29.5N WITHIN 90
NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N11W...CURVING TO 8N16W AND 6N19W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N19W TO 4N25W 6N36W AND 5N46W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO
4N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N FROM 38W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR TAMPA
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 101 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...THROUGH THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL
BELIZE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 26N83W...THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO SOUTHERN BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
30N86W 22N90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 21N/22N FROM 90W WESTWARD.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO A 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO NEAR 25N99W...INTO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER
FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE...TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO NAPLES. RAIN IS NOT BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS YET.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SPAN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 22N83W TO 16N83W 12N73W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 70W EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 12N AT THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 11N76W OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND
IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE 48 HOURS WILL BE REPLACED BY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-
TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL LAST FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM CUBA AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD AND
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W
WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 16N TO 22N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 17N45W 19N45W
21N46W 22N48W 21N50W 23N53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N59W TO 32N64W...28N71W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N83W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N26W...AND TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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