[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231125 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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