[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230606 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
9N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 5N30W TO
5N40W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W AND
27W AS WELL AS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N67W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E-NE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N85W TO
25N86W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG WITH
INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 91W. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
TO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT E OF 88W. A
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 23N WEST OF 88W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 28N96W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W AND THE
TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N96W TO 28N91W. THESE
FEATURES COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE CONVECTION
IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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