[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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