[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W TO 6N40W
6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N E OF 23W AND
WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH ON WEST VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORT EASTERLY WIND OF 20-25 KT WHILE A
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
26N MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE- TO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW TO WESTERN CUBA
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD
FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER
WESTERN CUBA FROM WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 21N85W TO
16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COASTS OF
BELIZE...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SAT
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 34N53W SW TO 27N65W TO 25N71W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY
A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ON
THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS EAST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 13W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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