[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N19W
TO 8N30W 6N40W 6N50W...AND INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SURINAME.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO
30N73W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N64W 30N69W
28N72W 26N75W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGVX...
KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KATP...KIPN...AND KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
IN LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. LIGHT RAIN IS IN NAPLES. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 66W EASTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 80W EASTWARD.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
21N84W 19N85W 16N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD
FROM 80W WESTWARD...INCLUDING IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA...AND IN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA-TO-NORTHERN GUATEMALA
COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF 12N72W 14N80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.74 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND
86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
IN SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE-
SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...AND IT WILL
END UP ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH 32N22W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N22W AND 25N24W. A SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 25N24W TO 23N46W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N57W...EVENTUALLY TO 11N63W ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N20W
AND 23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N15W 28N19W 21N25W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 66W EASTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N44W...TO 29N57W 25N65W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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