[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N28W 7N38W 6N44W TO NEAR 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
22W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE CONUS AND INTO THE
N GULF OF MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA
FLORIDA SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 18/2100 UTC IS
MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N80W TO ACROSS CUBA
NEAR HAVANA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE E OF LINE FROM S OF FORT MYERS
FLORIDA ALONG 23N88W TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT INTO THE W ATLC
REGION. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W
OF THE FRONT S OF 27N LEAVING THE N GULF CLEAR THIS EVENING. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031
MB HIGH NE LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT THE GULF TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE NW GULF ON TONIGHT AND
WED BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THU THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT AT 18/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA ALONG 21N85W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BEYOND 20N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 21N84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W COVERING
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS E
CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 80W TO THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF THE COLD FRONT TO OVER CUBA...YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 10N78W THROUGH A WEAK
1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N82W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W
OF 78W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL CUBA
TO N BELIZE BY WED MORNING BEFORE STALLING WED DISSIPATING BY
THU.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE
ISLAND WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC IS GIVING HISPANIOLA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE NW
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 18/2100 UTC ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W AND CONTINUES INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO WELL BEYOND
BERMUDA COVERING THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO THE W...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 22N78W ALONG 27N74W TO BEYOND 32N66W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N24W ALONG 25N30W THEN W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N50W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N15W TO 25N30W THEN
DISSIPATES ALONG 24N51W TO 27N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 26W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR
33N45W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N63W TO CENTRAL CUBA
BY LATE WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON THU AND
DISSIPATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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