[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
12N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N24W 6N41W TO
8N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
13N48W TO 9N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N41W TO 16N48W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER N GUATEMALA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SOUTH CAROLINA SUPPORTING A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR
28N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE
GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF AT 12/0300
UTC ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY ALONG 28N94W TO JUST S
OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR 25N99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS THE N GULF BY THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
AND IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. FRONT WILL REACH FROM MOBILE BAY TO TUXPAN
MEXICO BY WED THEN FROM APALACHICOLA BAY TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY
THU AND FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 76W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF 12N W
OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 17N E OF 76W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A DYING STATIONARY FRONT THAT BEGINS
OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITH DRY STABLE
AIR...THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W ALONG
16N75W TO 11N79W. LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 9N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS W.

HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES W ATLC/CARIBBEAN FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W ALONG 16N75W TO 11N79W.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME A
SURFACE TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS E ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE
ISLAND. THIS TROUGH PLUS ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GIVE THE ISLANDS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY TAPERING
OFF ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N73W TO OVER HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N71W ALONG 25N72W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W WHERE IT BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH
PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N70W ACROSS HAITI NEAR
20N72W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-74W. A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N38W
ALONG 22N50W 17N55W THEN S TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N56W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N54W TO 20N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 50W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
23N44W TO 25N51W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N46W. THE W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E AND REACHES FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE
THU. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA THU
NIGHT AND REACH FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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