[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N10W AND CONTINUES TO
07N17W TO 08N33W. THE BOUNDARY RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 07N35W TO 08N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
17N BETWEEN 29W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SE CONUS
SUPPORTING A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THE GULF W OF 86W WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW
IS E OF 86W. TO THE W OF THE SURFACE HIGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
MOVING FROM NE MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ACROSS THE NW GULF AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE TEXAS COASTLINE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NEAR VERACRUZ
MEXICO BY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA IS ALSO INFLUENCING
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE AREA RAIN-FREE. A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDING TO
THE CARIBBEAN FROM 21N78W TO 15N82W. TO THE E OF THIS
FEATURE...A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST ONE IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING TO HISPANIOLA
AND THE CARIBBEAN FROM 20N73W TO 15N73W. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM
15N75W TO 10N77W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM OF EACH AXES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH N OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND THE SUPPORT AT UPPER
LEVELS OF A DIFFLUENT FLOW ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 11N.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 69W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES E ACROSS E CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
FROM 20N73W TO 15N73W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW W OF THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 21N BETWEEN
69W-72W AFFECTING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E ACROSS E CUBA. WITH
THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NE CUBA
IS SUPPORTING A 1007 SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N75W WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS N FROM 29N75W AND MEETS WITH A COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM 31N73W TO 22N76W. THESE BOUNDARIES PAIRED
WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 20N-
40N BETWEEN 63W-70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...KEEPING
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING N OF 10N BETWEEN 48W-63W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 25N52W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. A
PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE NEAR THE ITCZ: ONE FROM 12N45W TO
08N45W AND THE OTHER FROM 11N33W TO 07N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE FIRST TROUGH...MAINLY WITHIN 100
NM FROM THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES WITH
FAIR WEATHER AS A STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH PREVAILS NEAR 32N42W.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE N WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING
EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
E BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA BY THURSDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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