[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
17N75W TO 10N75W MOVING W AT 12 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
MOISTURE. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NORTH NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 74W-77W.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC AT 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
8N20W TO 10N34W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR 7N37W AND CONTINUES TO 8N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 16W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-
16N BETWEEN 22W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 40W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
35N83W PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AT
20N70W AND EXTENDS TO N NICARAGUA AT 14N83W. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ARE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HONDURAS N OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W TO 14N69W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA...FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING NW FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO BE S
OF HISPANIOLA ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE TO A SHEAR LINE...AND FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ALSO
DISSIPATE. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY A FRONT TRAVERSES HISPANIOLA WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE
N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N59W TO
HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ARE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NW OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 29N. A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW TO 29N53W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
21N43W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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