[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 18N74W TO 12N74W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 09N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 10N33W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 08N37W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME
IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N56W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS THE
TROPICS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
17W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS
MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEKEND HAS
CLEARED ALL THE GULF FROM PRECIPITATION AND A SURFACE 1031 MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN US AND EXTENDING INTO
THE GULF. WITH THIS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT IS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND AROUND 15-20
KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES E ENHANCING THE E
TO SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO 20N71W TO
14N84W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...10-
15 KT TRADES PREVAIL. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PROXIMITY
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N-14W W OF 81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N65W TO 15N67W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-68W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MERGE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER HAITI. THIS FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 200 MN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA AND THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE ISLAND AND A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
FROM 20N71W TO 33N59W TO 48N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM 28N58W TO 23N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW IS
PREVAILING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE EAST...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N40W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 12N35W TO 07N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 33W-38W. A STATIONARY
1031 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
E OF 56W WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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