[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N29W TO 00N30W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AXIS. WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND TRACES OF LOW-
LEVEL VORTICITY AT 850 MB ARE NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N52W TO 03N53W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND
SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 50W-
55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N68W TO 05N69W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF MOISTURE S OF 14N ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N19W TO 04N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
10N BETWEEN 12W-20W...AND FROM 00N-07N BETWEEN 20W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N73W. SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA...AND INLAND OVER E TEXAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...AND
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH NW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. A BAND OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DUE TO PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...
AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N73W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N57W TO 27N63W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N31W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE... A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A GALE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
31N10W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N75W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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