[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF
8N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS RELOCATED FOR
THE 26/1200 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS BASED ON CURRENT LONG-TERM
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF
13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES
THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N13W 5N23W
5N25W. THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY THE 27W/28W TROPICAL WAVE...AND
IT CONTINUES FROM 1N29W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO
2S37W TO 1S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N17W 6N30W 4N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEYOND LOUISIANA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN THE SAME AREA AS THE DRIER AIR.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE NEXT FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT CURRENTLY IS IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE ICAO STATION KBBF...THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS...HAS
BEEN REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE SINCE
26/1135 UTC. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN SOME SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES.
LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN SUGARLAND. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVERS THE CHENNAULT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND
A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD IN MILTON IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN MARY
ESTHER AND VALPARAISO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS APALACHICOLA.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N70W...
ACROSS HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N74W...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN PUERTO RICO/THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.27 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO AND 0.01 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N ALONG THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH A 79W TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 65W AND 71W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 24N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACCOMPANYING
THE 25N70W-TO-HAITI-TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TROUGH.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
30N60W 27N70W AND 27N75W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING
STATIONARY AT 27N75W...AND IT CONTINUES TO THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 28N...AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W
TO 27N60W 25N70W TO 26N80W...IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 32N10W NEAR THE COAST OF MOROCCO...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 24N27W 17N31W TO 10N36W. THIS FEATURE IS ON TOP OF
A SURFACE RIDGE/REGIME OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N50W 25N48W
BEYOND 32N43W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N31W...PASSING THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N42W 26N49W
25N64W...TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND AWAY FROM THE 32N56W
27N70W 28N80W COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 52W TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net