[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N...MOVING WESTWARD 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. OTHER NEARBY CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH OF
12N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAY REACH PARTS OF VENEZUELA AND
TRINIDAD...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS INTACT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 1N31W.
THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY THE 35W/36W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ
EVENTUALLY CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO
5N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N8W 4N13W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
3N13W 2N19W...WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N22W 2N27W
1N40W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...FROM 1N TO 1S
BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE EAST OF 90W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENCROACHING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO STEADILY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W...FORECAST TO
REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE ICAO STATION KBBF...THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS...HAS
BEEN REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE/FOG
SINCE 24/1315 UTC. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N74W JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 17N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE GULF OF URABA
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N73W
23N75W 20N76W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W INCLUDING IN SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND JAMAICA AND IN THE WINDWARD CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 29N61W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N66W...AND FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W
AND 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.76 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.19 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.03 IN SAN JUAN
IN PUERTO RICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW..

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 83W AT THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND
A LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA
CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH
THAT CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO THE GULF OF
URABA OF COLOMBIA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WINDS WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 28N71W TO 24N75W NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THIS
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC SYSTEM WHOSE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 39N68W IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A. COAST. EARLIER SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WAS FROM 32N TO
33N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W AT 24/0945 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED SINCE THEN.

A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS SPIRAL AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N23W...TO 30N18W 25N21W TO 22N34W. THIS
FEATURE IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE/REGIME OF SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 37N32W...PASSING THROUGH 32N37W TO 29N46W 27N55W AND
24N68W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 54W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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