[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N33W TO 10N31W MOVING W AT 30 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND SUBTLE
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 28W-35W.
THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 06N BETWEEN 27W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N53W TO 13N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN MAXIMUM VALUES S OF 11N BETWEEN 49W-55W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
07N16W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 01N27W TO 02N43W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 08W-
27W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 45W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 27W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N95W TO 32N89W THIS
MORNING. WHILE GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EXISTS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...AT
THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N87W CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE GULF
WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 77W. TO THE WEST OF
77W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 76W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS
OF PANAMA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED MAINLY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...HOWEVER THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
14N BETWEEN 68W-77W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS PERSISTING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH
FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH A PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SETUP IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ISLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE NW OF THE ISLAND
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIKELY
ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOTED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 39N72W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING TO 30N73W TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 32N...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 26N72W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 64W-74W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 27N. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED W-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N33W. THE
TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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