[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY NEAR 5N28W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 15 KT DURING
THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES
EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. INSTEAD...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 1S-9N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
50W MOVING APPROXIMATELY AT 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY MOIST AIR
WHICH ALONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED MAINLY ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE
WESTERNMOST PART OF THE AXIS EXTENDING TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ AXIS
BEGINS NEAR 7N14W AND CONTINUES TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
5N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS RESUMES WEST OF THIS WAVE NEAR 2N28W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N40W TO 1S50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-5N BETWEEN 30W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
29N87W. SURFACE RIDGING IS MAINTAINING WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS
THE BASIN WHILE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND
SHEAR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
WHOLE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC
STATES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NE GULF ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHRE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE FAR WEST ATLC
DEEPENS INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER BASIN AND THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALSO LINKED TO A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N73W TO WEST OF HAITI NEAR 19N73W. THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...HISPAIOLA AS WELL AS THE
MONA PASSAGE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS REGION EXTENDING 120 NM OFF THE
COAST. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS
SUPPORTING TRADES OF 15 KT...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FLOODING THREATS.

...HISPANIOLA...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RELATED TO A MID TO UPPER TROUGH
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. A SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH
ALOFT REMAINS IN THE AREA ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AS A DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ENTER THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC DEEPING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAHAMAS...CUBA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS COASTAL
WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
24N73W TO 19N73W. NE OF THE TROUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF SCATERRED CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 64W-71W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES
DISCUSSED ABOVE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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