[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W TO THE SOUTH OF
7N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION HAS BEEN
MOVED MORE TO THE WEST IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST ASCAT-A
SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE TPW IMAGERY...AND LIGHTNING DATA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 3N TO 12N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.
THE WAVE IS RIDING THE CUSP OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED IN SSMI
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPOSITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS ALONG 10N AND TOWARD AN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...THAT IS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A BROAD MIDDLE
LATITUDE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER  TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
WAVE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY...AND IT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES
INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED TRADE WINDS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY
THE 24W/25W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1N27W 1N31W
1N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 11W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 97W FROM TEXAS
SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 94W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 97W RIDGE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS
FALLING IN PALACIOS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW
ORLEANS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO
27N75W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO
JAMAICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N79W...TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 29N80W OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 73W FROM 18N IN HAITI...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...TO 24N. THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET REMAINS ACTIVE AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 27N49W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 19N71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 16N75W
TO 15N81W...AND FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 60W...
AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
PUERTO RICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW..

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
PANAMA...BEYOND 83W AT THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AS THE CURRENT 75W TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND REACHES IT BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 32N36W TO
28N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 30N46W 28N58W 27N67W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 47W TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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