[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
2S36W 2S38W...INTO BRAZIL AND BEYOND 3S42W ALONG ITS COAST. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N26W 7N28W 4N29W BASED ON THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
IN AFRICA AND THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM 9N TO 14N
BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W FROM SOUTHERN
MEXICO BEYOND 30N IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPAN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N97W IN MEXICO JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. STATION KBBF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST HAS
BEEN REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE FOR
MANY OF ITS PAST OBSERVATIONS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS TO THE
NORTH OF 14N83W 16N70W BEYOND 18N60W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 14N83W 18N60W LINE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW..

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AND ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF
20N61W 17N70W 14N80W 11N86W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 4.12 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.62 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND
0.13 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W TO 6N79W...
TO WESTERN PANAMA AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 10N...AND ACROSS PARTS OF
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AND ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF
20N61W 17N70W 14N80W 11N86W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAIN AND A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. RAIN AND A
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...IN
SANTO DOMINGO...AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND
OTHER FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF 24 HOURS...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS-TO CUBA TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST TROUGH
MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST TROUGH IS FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND TROUGH AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVER HISPANIOLA
FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A CARIBBEAN SEA
INVERTED TROUGH COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 26N64W 23N68W...TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 28N66W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N65W 23N69W 21N71W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N62W 20N66W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AND ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N55W 27N56W 22N65W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N77W...
ACROSS GUATEMALA AND INTO MEXICO NEAR 16N91W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 29N35W 22N35W 17N39W 10N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N42W...PASSING THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N61W. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1026 MB HIGH CENTER
THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N28W...AND TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF
78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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