[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AFRICA WHILE PORTIONS OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE
EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLC AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS
OF BRAZIL. OF NOTE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 03N31W TO
09N27W WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NOTED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 05N28W.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS LARGELY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW PROMOTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 24W-30W. EXAMINING PAST
GLOBAL MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND WIND ANALYSES AT THE
310K...315K...AND 320K LEVELS...THE TROUGH IS LARGELY MADE UP OF
MID-LATITUDE ENERGY THAT HAS ROUNDED A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE ENERGY REMAINING IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...THE ARKLATEX
REGION...AND PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF WATERS. THE OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS FROM 35N80W SW TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE
RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT
WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N83W AND A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION GENERATING
AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-
22N BETWEEN 65W-88W...INCLUDING CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO. OTHERWISE...S OF 16N...DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND NW VENEZUELA WHERE WINDS WILL REACH A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC. THIS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS KEEPING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N59W TO 30N63W THAT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO
26N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...
MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGHING IS GENERATING A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N53W TO 20N69W TO 20N80W IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N80W. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH CENTERED W-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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