[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS TO 8N15W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 8N21W TO 1N26W. A 1010 MB LOW REMAINS S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 3S30W. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE DISRUPTING THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 12W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 7N25W TO 2N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF.
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE SE GULF S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA E OF 83W AND IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S
GULF WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N82W TO
17N85W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL PANAMA COVERS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER
THE BAHAMAS WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF LINE
FROM YUCATAN NEAR 17N88W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...CUBA...JAMAICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES E OF 70W.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU
KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND
THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS TO 28N66W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
26N68W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N BETWEEN
65W-76W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW ATLC ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER GREAT
LAKES. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N14W TO 31N23W. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT SE
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND
FRONT ALONG 30N. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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