[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N58W TO 11N58W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 02N-12 BETWEEN 54W-60W COINCIDING
WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF A VERY SUBTLE 700 MB SIGNAL
PROPAGATING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
INDICATED OVER GUYANA AND FRENCH GUIANA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS VENEZUELA TUE AND WED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W
THROUGH 06N20W TO 01N36W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 10W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE AND
OVERALL DRY STABLE CONDITIONS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GULF N OF 24N THIS EVENING AS RESIDUAL MID-TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGHING WANES...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
U.S. PLAINS. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BUILD
EASTWARD AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE PRESENCE
OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
92W S OF 24N. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THIS GULF THIS EVENING AND THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN PRECIPITATION-WISE IS ACROSS THE SE
GULF WATERS...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 24N
BETWEEN 78W-87W IN PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL END OF A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE/TROUGH AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHERE SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS WERE APPROACHING 100 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS EVENING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
10N82W/COSTA RICA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS...APPROACHING 100
KT...ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WERE
ADVECTING COPIUS AMOUNTS OF MID-TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST PACIFIC OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH 20N80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
GENERATED AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA.
OTHERWISE...S OF 18N...DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 10N AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT WITHIN
90 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COASTLINE WHERE
WINDS WILL REACH A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE/SURFACE TROUGH...MARGINAL
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SW N
ATLC HAS ENHANCED OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
FAIRLY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ISLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK KEEPING HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN PLACE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LATE SEASON BROAD DEEP MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTED A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N63W TO 29N68W BECOMING A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WAS
OCCURRING OVER THE SW N ATLC S OF 26N W OF 60W IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AXIS/ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND THE
PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N35W TO 27N50W TO
28N60W. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN
PORTUGAL TO 33N20W TO 34N28W PUSHING SOUTHWARD WILL IMPACT THE
NE CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN AREA
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT FOLLOW IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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