[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N86W TO 24N91W TO 18N92W. NORTHWEST-TO-
NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 15 FEET ARE
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 94W. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11
FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N31W TO 9N32W AND 4N33W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE
EAST OF 21W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 36W
AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM THE 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 33W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N13W TO 4N15W AND 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N19W TO 5N30W...BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL WAVE...TO 3N34W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...TO 2S38W AND 3S40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO
1S TO THE EAST OF 20W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 33W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN
LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS...INTO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR
MEXICO NEAR 18N92W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM 20N NORTHWARD. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 30N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
BETWEEN 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 90W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KGBK...KGHB...CLEARING SKIES AT KEIR AND KSPR...KGRY...
KMDJ...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. STATION KBVE
IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF
TALLAHASSEE. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. ST. PETERSBURG AND SARASOTA ARE REPORTING
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES.
LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES. MIDDLE
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST AND IN MARATHON.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST WEEK HAS BEEN REINFORCED.
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 23N57W...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N67W...TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA...BETWEEN THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA
AND THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEAST OF 11N62W
14N70W 17N80W 18N87W. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PASSING THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N50W 28N57W...BEYOND 32N68W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 39W AND
72W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW..

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.28 IN
KINGSTON...AND 0.24 IN MONTEGO BAY...IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
10N80W...TO 11N84W IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...ACROSS NORTHERN
COSTA RICA AND BEYOND 11N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...AND
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN THE COASTS OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NICARAGUA-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET...HIGHEST NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 69W AND 78W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N17W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN SAHARA AND MOROCCO AND
ADJACENT WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 9W AND 14W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N33W...AND CONTINUING TO 23N44W
AND 23N58W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
WEST OF 76W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N42W TO 28N46W TO 25N56W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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