[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N88W TO 26N90W TO 18N93W. NORTHWEST-TO-
NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS9 TO 15 FEET ARE OCCURRING
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N30W TO 8N31W AND 3N32W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N
BETWEEN 28W AND 37W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N13W AND 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N18W TO 5N28W...CURVING TO 3N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
35W...3S37W AND 2S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 1S TO THE EAST OF 20W...
AND FROM 6N TO 5S BETWEEN 28W AND 50W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN
LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS...INTO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MISSISSIPPI/
COASTAL ALABAMA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM 22N NORTHWARD. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 27N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
BETWEEN WESTERN COASTAL FLORIDA AND 87W...AND EVEN ACROSS
FLORIDA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KATP...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...
KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO SITE KVAF.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS WITH RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
PERRY WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST WEEK HAS BEEN REINFORCED.
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 24N62W...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N69W...TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND CUBA...AND SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS THAT WERE TAKING PLACE IN
CUBA AND IN HISPANIOLA HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A COLD
FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N45W TO
30N54W...BEYOND BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO
THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.28 IN
KINGSTON...AND 0.24 IN MONTEGO BAY...IN JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SANTIAGO.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NICARAGUA-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 67W AND 69W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N17W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO AND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 30N31W...TO A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N36W...AND CONTINUING TO
22N45W AND 22N59W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET OVER FORECAST WATERS TO
THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...OVER FORECAST WATERS THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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