[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun May 11 18:30:23 CDT 2014


AXNT20 KNHC 112330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N16W TO 3N24W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 11W-20W...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-
27W...AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE N GULF COAST. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER NE TEXAS TO SW LOUISIANA ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY OVER THE
N GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND N GULF TO 90W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W
ATLC WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO FAR THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA
TO NEAR TAMPICO EARLY WED. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR W CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF WED INTO EARLY
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS
ELONGATING N/S ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N67W THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 23N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 14N TO ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN 63W-67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N ACROSS HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-73W. AN
UPPER RIDGE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W TO 17N59W INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE LEE OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO EARLY MON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
LIFT N AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND S BAHAMAS SUN THROUGH
WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE COUPLED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 11/2100 UTC IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE E
TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND PORTIONS OF W HAITI. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK W ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NE
AND WEAKENS MON AS IT IS BEING ABSORBED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO
NE FLORIDA ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY OVER S GEORGIA AND NE
FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF 29N.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 27N73W TO BEYOND 32N60W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N68W THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N67W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO BETWEEN 65W-67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF
24N BETWEEN 62W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N30W
TO 30N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. W
ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W-NW TO NEAR 72W
MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH
TUE THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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