[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N15W TO 05N19W TO 03N10W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N10W TO 02N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM EITHER SIDE OF OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
09W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF...
HOWEVER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N83W AND THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
NEAR 26N90W. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 25N E OF 90W...AND A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF 24N92W. AT THE
SURFACE...ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG
29N/30N PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT. THIS PATTERN OF E-SE WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THOUGH
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W. AS A RESULT OF THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL W OF 70W THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...E OF 70W...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INCREASES WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE
ADVECTION...CLOUDINESS...AND PRECIPITATION REMAINING AN IMPACT
FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
RESULTS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ANALYZED FROM 15N68W THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE TO 21N66W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W SE TO THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. THIS
CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC. OF NOTE...1.37 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN AT SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND 0.78 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
HAS FALLEN AT SAINT THOMAS U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN REGION BY LATE MONDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE ISLAND FROM
15N68W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 21N66W. IN ADDITION...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
17N68W IS PROVIDING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSENING EARLY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA REGION THIS
AFTERNOON GENERATING A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. WHILE MUCH OF THIS
CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N69W IS PROVIDING FOR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. FARTHER TO THE SE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W AND IS
GENERATING AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT HIGHER
WINDS NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
TO 21N66W. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 12N-24N BETWEEN 54W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N46W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC IS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDING W-SW
TO 30N43W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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