[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
02N19W TO 02N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N29W TO 02N40W TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-05N BETWEEN 15W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL WIND CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE GULF.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS
ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE BASIN N OF 23N TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N65W EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND
PROVIDES SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 15-20 KT OVER THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN BASIN WHILE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF SUPPORT WINDS UP TO 25 KT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ADVECTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WHICH
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DATA SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL
AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE N OF 24N W OF 90W AND N OF 26N E OF
87W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE TODAY...WINDS OVER
THE GULF WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY
EARLY SAT MORNING A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM NW HAITI
TO NORTHERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES
ALONG THE SHEARLINE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM S
OF IT. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CREATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX BY SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE TRADES OF 25 KT
DOMINATE...TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ELSEWHERE. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY SAT MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N72W TO NORTHERN
JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. THIS SHEAR LINE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHEAR LINE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TODAY...HOWEVER REMNANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWERS
OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 35N65W. FARTHER EAST A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N48W SW TO 25N56W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N68W AND THEN
INTO A SHEARLINE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 14N IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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