[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT. WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
03N18W TO 01N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N27W TO 01S35W TO
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 04S-01N BETWEEN 10W-16W AND FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 12W-25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN
35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL WIND FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE BASIN N OF 24N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A BROAD RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N70W EXTENDS
INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 15-20 KT OVER
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORT WINDS UP 30 KT. THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF ALABAMA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N
WHILE LIGHTING DATA DEPICTS ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
88W-92W. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES
TO DRIFT NE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW THUS SUPPORTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE NE GULF FRI
NIGHT. BY EARLY SAT MORNING A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
FLORIDA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM THE
NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH HAITI AND NORTHERN JAMAICA
TO 18N80W. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES ALONG THE SHEARLINE
IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM S OF IT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE TRADES OF 25 KT
DOMINATE...TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ELSEWHERE. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY SAT MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N68W TO THE NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH HAITI AND JAMAICA TO 18N79W. THIS
SHEAR LINE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE SW ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SHEAR
LINE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N70W.
FARTHER EAST A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N49W
SW TO 24N58W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
20N68W AND THEN INTO A SHEARLINE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF
24N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND
THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 12N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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