[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO THE W ATLC AND REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WARNING IS FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT THROUGH
13/1200 UTC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N13W TO 1N15W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 13/0900 UTC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N89W
21N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. THUS NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W THEN OVER W CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N83W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OUT OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS SE OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NW GULF TONIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE FRI
NIGHT. A SECOND WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 13/0900 UTC FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N83W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N86W THEN
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE TO INLAND OVER GUATEMALA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 62W-69W AND OVER
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER
TODAY AND DISSIPATE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ON FRI. FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH
SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER S HAITI FROM 18N-19N
BETWEEN 72W-74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUN. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI EARLY FRI. THE
PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE FRI WHILE
THE FRONT OVER THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE E AND DISSIPATE N OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS
MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT
13/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N74W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN STUART AND FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 32N69W
ALONG 27N75W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 29N AND FROM 77W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N31W AND EXTENDS TO 27N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE SW EXTENDING FROM 27N45W ALONG 24N52W TO 20N59W MOVING NW. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA E OF 65W AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
33N42W AND A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE N
OF PUERTO RICO ON FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN W OF THE
FRONT AND SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS ON FRI PASSING NEAR BERMUDA
ON SAT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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