[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 13/0600 UTC
FROM 21N-25N W OF 95W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 13/0600 UTC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SAME GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF INTO THE W ATLC. GALE WARNING WILL BE FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W-SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 13/0300 UTC ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR
29N83W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
20N97W WITH GALE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT. SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN.
THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N81W THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM
NW AND 60 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
E THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PASS SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNRISE THU. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND SPREAD E
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE FRI NIGHT. A SECOND WEAKER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 13/0300 UTC FROM THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 62W-
67W AND ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF
82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU AND DISSIPATE FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON FRI. FRESH N WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU
NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
PATCH OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HAITI
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REACHING THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI EARLY FRI WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE FRI.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT
13/0300 UTC EXTENDS JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH 32N79W ACROSS SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA JUST W OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E EXTENDING
ALONG 32N73W ALONG 28N77W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N43W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS TO 27N38W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N45W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 23N50W TO
21N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE THU AND DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO
RICO ON FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN W OF THE FRONT AND
SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS ON FRI PASSING NEAR BERMUDA ON SAT
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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