[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS EARLY WEDNESDAY USHERING IN GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BY
12/1800 UTC NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...GALE FORCE W TO NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 29N WEST OF
THE FRONT BEGINNING AT 13/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
03N16W TO 01N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 01N19W TO THE EQUATOR AT 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 12W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST
WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY
OF 29N95W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 29N94W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-NE ALONG
THE GULF COAST TO NEAR MOBILE BAY...AND SOUTH FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 22N95W THEN TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 87W-95W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS
OF COASTAL LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A N-NE TRACK AND GRADUALLY BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG 30N/31N TO THE SE CONUS
BY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W
SW TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-74W. THE OVERALL LACK OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR
08N66W NW TO 22N80W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERALLY
PROVIDING STABILITY AND DRY AIR OVER THE BASIN. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH A 1017
MB HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N74W DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE STRONGEST TRADES ARE
NOTED CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS THE STRONGEST. EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED
THESE WINDS GENERALLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E-NE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL DISSIPATE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND THIS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT E-NE WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING E-SE FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N74W. FARTHER EAST...BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH MUCH OF
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 25N BETWEEN 42W-60W. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING SW TO 24N50W TO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY...ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 28N60W. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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