[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N15W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-20W AND FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WATERS.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NE MEXICO. AT 11/0900 UTC A
NEWLY DEVELOPED 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR 20N96W AND E FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N92W OVER SW
LOUISIANA TO 29N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-29N W OF 91W TO THE FRONT. THE
SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE DISSIPATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
SHIFTING E ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED
AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE GULF EXITING THE GULF LATE
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-83W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
W CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL THU THEN FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE LATE SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI.
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY THU AND
APPROACH HISPANIOLA FRI INCREASING SHOWERS FROM W TO E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W
ATLC AND A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N51W ALONG 28N59W TO 28N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A REMNANT
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W TO 30N43W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N51W TO N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180/210 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MOVE E TODAY THROUGH THU WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS W
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO NW CUBA THU AND FROM NEAR 32N60W
TO E CUBA FRI BEFORE STALLING THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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