[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT SUN MAR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE WARNING AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST N ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N53W TO 26N60W TO
19N70W. N OF 27N WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 55W W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 1N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1N20W
TO 1N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7S-4N BETWEEN 19W-27W AND FROM 7S-1S BETWEEN
2W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 4W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT
WHICH IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC WATERS INTO
THE BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE
NE GULF NEAR 30N86W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
WATERS AND PROVIDES MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. A COLD
FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR
29N93W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 94W. EAST OF 90W CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE. THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
WHERE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NW GULF BY
TUE MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO NOTABLE FEATURES OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN DISSIPATED. THE
REMAINDER PORTION OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH
ITS TAIL EXTENDING JUST N OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. REMNANT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A MOIST AIRMASS IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW
IMAGERY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THIS REGION TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT DAY RESIDUAL SHOWERS
TO REMAIN FROM HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO.

HISPANIOLA...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING JUST N OF
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT ALREADY DISSIPATED IS ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO 25N61W TO 19N70W
BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH W OF 45W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT NEAR OUR NORTH BORDER. SEE
ABOVE. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS COLD
FRONT ALONG 30N20W TO 25N30W TO 26N40W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N44W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 24N42W COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN N OF 12N. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE TO EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BY MON
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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