[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE WARNING AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N57W TO 25N64W TO
20N73W. N OF 27.5N WITHIN 210 NM SE OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35
KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 65W W WINDS 30 TO 35
KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N16W TO 1N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 1N20W TO 1N34W TO 1N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6S-0N BETWEEN 1W-9W AND
FROM 5S-6N BETWEEN 18W-26W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 2W-
10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT
WHICH IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC WATERS INTO
THE BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE
NE GULF NEAR 30N85W DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AND PROVIDES
MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 21N W OF
89W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SW ALONG THE COASTLINE OF TEXAS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NW BASIN LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE EASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS FRONT OVER THE FAR
WESTERN BASIN WHERE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY.
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
NW GULF BY TUE MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO NOTABLE FEATURES OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN HAS DISSIPATED. THE
REMAINDER PORTION OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH
ITS TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE. REMNANT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A MOIST AIRMASS IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THIS REGION TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY WIND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT DAY RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO REMAIN FROM HISPANIOLA TO
PUERTO RICO.

HISPANIOLA...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT ALREADY DISSIPATED IS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE PASSAGE
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 24N66W TO 20N73W
BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH W OF 50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT NEAR OUR NORTH BORDER. SEE
ABOVE. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS COLD
FRONT ALONG 30N23W TO 25N34W TO 27N41W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N44W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 25N43W COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN N OF 10N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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