[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC N OF 27N WITHIN
180 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N67W TO
25N71W TO 21N76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST
OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
SUN. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N19W TO 1N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 1N26W AND CONTINUES TO 0N38W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
0S49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4S-6N
BETWEEN 12W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING
ADVECTION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC N OF 27N AND DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AND
PROVIDES NORTHEASTERLY-EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT E OF 90W AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT ELSEWHERE. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN WHILE BANKING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS DURING SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE W GULF EARLY SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC WITH A
BASE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH TRANSITION
TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA TO 19N83W TO
19N83W TO 15N87W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N67W TO 19N75W.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOSTLY THE ENTIRE BASIN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERING THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH ARE
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF A LINE FROM 18N67W TO 12N61W.
TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 80W WITH WINDS UP TO 20
KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW BASIN...NELY WINDS UP
TO 10 KT DOMINATE. OTHERWISE...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING BUT REMNANT MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT
WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO HINDER DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC WITH A
BASE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM 30N67W TO 25N72W TO NORTH-EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 26N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N
BETWEEN 64W-69W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS. FARTHER
EAST...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
N CENTRAL ATLC WATERS...WHICH ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A
COLD FRONT FROM 30N38W TO 29N44W TO 30N50W. OTHERWISE...A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF
14N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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