[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS
MORNING OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 0600 UTC IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO 26N72W. THE
EXPECTED AREA OF GALE WINDS WILL BE N OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT. PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W TO 1N29W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 0N30W AND CONTINUES TO 0S40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2S-6N BETWEEN 10W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING ADVECTION OF
MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC N OF 26N AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE
NE GULF NEAR 29N86W DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AND PROVIDES
NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT E OF 90W AND EASTERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT ELSEWHERE. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN WHILE BANKING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS DURING SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE W GULF EARLY SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC WITH A
BASE NEAR NORTHERN CUBA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH TRANSITION
TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO 21N78W TO
19N83W TO 15N87W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOSTLY THE ENTIRE BASIN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERING THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH ARE ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 65W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO HAVE BEEN
REPORTED OVER CENTRAL COASTAL HONDURAS WHERE THE FRONT TAIL
ENDS. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 80W WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW BASIN...NELY
WINDS UP TO 10 KT DOMINATE. OTHERWISE... THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SAT BUT REMNANT
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUN MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO HINDER DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC WITH A
BASE NEAR NORTHERN CUBA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO 24N74W TO NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 30N75W TO FREEPORT TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N
BETWEEN 65W-72W. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 25N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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